On 1 October 2026, URA released its flash estimate for the 3rd Quarter 2026 private residential price index: prices rose 1.4% quarter-on-quarter, up from 0.5% in Q2. Over the first three quarters of 2026, prices have now risen an average of 0.9% a quarter - the same pace as the same period of 2025. Steady, not spiking.
The breakdown matters more than the headline. Landed homes rose 2.8%, on top of 2.5% in Q2. Among condos and apartments (non-landed, +0.9% overall), the Outside Central Region (OCR) jumped 2.2% after a flat Q2, the Rest of Central Region (RCR) edged up 0.2%, and the Core Central Region (CCR) slipped 0.1% after a strong 1.8% in Q2. Based on URA’s own index levels, the 2.2% gain would take the OCR index to a new high.
The OCR jump was a new-launch story
When we break down Q3 condo transactions (up to 26 September, excluding ECs), the OCR rise is coming almost entirely from new launches. Resale prices in the OCR actually eased slightly:
| Median PSF | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| OCR new sale | $2,175 | $2,350 | +8.0% |
| OCR resale | $1,549 | $1,520 | -1.9% |
| RCR new sale | $2,538 | $2,567 | +1.1% |
| RCR resale | $1,854 | $1,866 | +0.6% |
| CCR new sale | $3,026 | $3,082 | +1.9% |
| CCR resale | $2,158 | $2,148 | -0.5% |
Median transacted PSF by region and sale type, excluding Executive Condominiums. Q3 2026 data runs to 26 September.
OCR new-sale volume this quarter was dominated by one project: Lentor Gardens Residences in District 26, which made up 324 of the roughly 470 OCR new-sale transactions, at a median of about $2,360 psf. That pushed the gap between OCR new launches and OCR resale out to about $830 psf (+55%), from about $630 psf (+40%) in Q2. On a 1,000 sq ft unit, that’s roughly $830,000 more to buy new than to buy resale in the same region.
Volume tells the same story. URA says sale transactions fell about 30% quarter-on-quarter, to 4,296 up to mid-September (from 6,148 in Q2) - Q2 had a heavier launch calendar. Year-to-date, 15,857 units have sold, below the 19,793 over the same period in 2025. Prices are rising on fewer, more concentrated deals.
Resale sellers are still winning
Even with OCR resale prices flat, the people selling are doing well. In Q3 2026, 98.5% of OCR resale sellers and 98.1% of RCR resale sellers sold at a profit, with median gains of about $393,000 and $447,000 respectively. The CCR is the exception: 83.6% sold at a profit - still most sellers, but a reminder that entry price matters most in the prime districts.
The HDB-private gap is widening
The same week, HDB’s flash estimate showed resale flat prices down 0.2% - their third straight quarterly dip (our breakdown here). Put the two indices side by side over the past year and the divergence is clear:
For upgraders, that’s the number that matters. Every quarter HDB stays flat while private prices rise, the distance between selling your flat and buying your next home gets wider. A 4pp gap in a year is meaningful when you’re bridging $1M or more.
What about supply?
URA says 4,745 private homes will be launched under the Government Land Sales Confirmed List in the second half of 2026, bringing the full-year Confirmed List supply to 9,320 units - more than 50% above the average of the past 10 years. Including ECs, around 60,600 private homes are expected to be completed over the next few years. That’s a deliberate effort to keep prices in check, and with interest rates described by URA as “highly uncertain”, the government is again urging households to be prudent with mortgages. Land sold today typically turns into launches a year or two later, so this supply weighs on future launches more than on today’s market.
What this means for you
Condo Buyers
The real choice in the OCR right now is new launch vs resale, and the gap just widened to around $830 psf. New launches still make sense if you want a fresh development, a longer runway before you move in, or progressive payment. But if you need a home now or want more space for the money, OCR resale is where the value is - prices there were flat this quarter.
Condo Sellers
Over 98% of OCR and RCR resale sellers made money this quarter. But buyers are comparing you against nearby new launches, and those are getting more expensive - which helps your listing look better value. Price against the launch next door, not just against past resale deals in your own project.
HDB Upgraders
The gap between HDB and private widened by about 4 percentage points in a year. If you’re planning to upgrade, waiting for HDB prices to “catch up” hasn’t worked this year. Run your numbers on your actual flat’s value and your target condo, and decide whether selling first or buying first makes sense for you.
Landed Buyers
Landed homes rose 2.8% this quarter, after 2.5% in Q2 - the strongest run of any segment. Landed supply is tight, and most of the new Confirmed List supply is condos and apartments, so don’t expect the same supply relief here.
Our take
A 1.4% quarter sounds strong, but the detail is more measured: the OCR jump is concentrated in new launches, resale prices are flat, and transaction volume is down 30%. This is a market where developers are pricing new launches higher and buyers are being selective - not a broad-based surge. The bigger story for most of our clients is the widening HDB-private gap: if upgrading is in your plans, the cost of waiting is rising. URA’s full Q3 2026 figures come out on 23 October 2026, and flash estimates can move, so treat today’s numbers as directional.